Drivers of change in education/Introduction

It is a peculiarity of man that he can only live by looking to the future — sub specie aeternitatis.

In this section we begin to explore the answers to questions like:


 * What are the key factors which are likely to contribute to fundamental change in education?
 * To what extent is the anticipated outcome of the identified drivers of change predictable?
 * How uncertain is the anticipated outcome of the identified driver of change?

The art of deductive scenario planning requires a clear distinction between trends and uncertainties.

The anticipated outcome of a trend is more "predictable" when compared to an uncertainty where the future outcome, per definition, is "unknown". It is also important to consider the context when deciding whether an identified driver of change is an uncertainty or basic trend. For example, a particular driver of change may be an uncertainty in the school sector, whereas the same driver of change may be classified as trend in the higher education sector. In deductive scenario planning we use the interaction between two uncertainties to provide the conceptual framework for the scenario story lines. The basic trends can be used as inputs for the individual scenario story lines to provide an authentic and plausible context.