Introduction to scenario planning/Introduction

Thinking about big change in education
''In human affairs &mdash; political, social, economic, and business &mdash; it is pointless to try to predict the future, let alone attempt to look ahead 75 years. But is possible &mdash; and fruitful &mdash; to identify major events that have already happened, irrevocably, and that therefore will have predictable effects in the next decade or two. It is possible, in other words, to identify and prepare for the future that has already happened.

Thinking about technology innovation, perception and the relationship between the past, present and future
Strategic planning involves the complex interaction between the past, present and future. Glick and Kupiec, with reference to technology strategies in education, suggest that "the more we understand the drivers of change, the better equipped we will be to act strategically" (2001:36). Notwithstanding improved understanding of the drivers of change, very often, perception and the certainty and stability associated with our knowledge of the past plays a significant role influencing the impact of technological innovation in education.

To dwell on the earlier fads and disappointments that technology has generated in education would be pedantic. Innovators like to believe that theirs is the real revolution. But technology has been about to transform education for a long time. In 1841 the 'inventor of the blackboard was ranked among the best contributors to learning and science, if not among the greatest benefactors to mankind'. A century later, in 1940, the motion picture was hailed the most revolutionary instrument introduced into education since the printing press. Television was the educational revolution in 1957. In 1962 it was programmed learning and in 1967 computers. Each was labelled the most important development since Gutenberg's printing press.